An increase in numbers of breeding ducks, coupled with improved habitat conditions on the northern prairies, will significantly increase the flocks of ducks winging southward this autumn. But the 2003 fall flight, while greater than last year, will remain only average.

Our annual fall-flight forecast predicts a 23 percent increase in the number of ducks winging southward this autumn, compared to last year. The species posting the biggest gains include shovelers, blue-winged teal, gadwall and pintails. The mallard fall flight will be only slightly larger.

This is welcome news after severe drought on the Canadian prairies sharply reduced last year’s fall flight. It should give hunters hope for greater success during the coming waterfowl season.

The predicted increase in the fall-flight forecast is the product of improved habitat conditions on the breeding grounds and increased numbers of breeding ducks.

Biologists counted 5.2 million potholes this spring on the northern prairies, a 91 percent increase over last year. A look at the number of potholes since 1993 is shown below.

Populations of breeding ducks also increased, although not as dramatically as numbers of northern-prairie potholes. Biologists counted 31.1 million breeding ducks (excluding canvasbacks and redheads) in the traditional survey area this spring, a 19 percent increase over the preceding year.

The “total duck” breeding population, exclusive of cans and redheads, since 1993 is shown in the following graph.

Importantly, all species of ducks increased in this spring’s breeding surveys, although the populations remained significantly below peak numbers found from 1998-2000. (For a species-by-species breeding-population breakdown, see The Good News and The Bad News , July 18, 2003.)

These two basic data sets, when combined with historical production, summer mortality and gunning vulnerability data, enable us to calculate fall flight estimate for eight of the 10 species counted in the spring survey. (For the precise fall-flight equation, see Fall Flight Forecast , July 24, 2002.)

A species-by-species breakdown with the change from 2002 reveals:

Species Fall Flight Change

Two points deserve mention. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, which only issues a mallard fall flight forecast, also predicts a 13 percent increase in the mallard fall flight. Also note that the fall flight of widgeon is expected to decline slightly this autumn.

When all species are combined, the fall flight is expected to increase 23 percent this autumn, compared to the 2002 fall flight. This year’s flight is five percent below the 1993-2002 average and 29 percent below the 1997 peak.

A look at the fall-flights from 1993-2002, combined with the predicted 2003 flight, is show in the following graph.

As you can see, this year’s predicted fall flight is slightly below the average for the decade from 1993-2002. Nonetheless, it represents a significant increase over last year. This is welcome news and should raise the spirits of every waterfowler looking forward to the upcoming duck season.