The news from the North American waterfowl breeding grounds is disheartening. A decline in numbers of breeding ducks, coupled with a drought conditions on the northern prairies, will cause most hunters to see fewer ducks migrating southward this autumn.

But the survey results are not this summer’s worst news. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Adaptive Harvest regulatory protocol calls for yet another season of liberal season lengths and bag limits, a recommendation designed to maximize the kill that, if adopted, is likely to further reduce next spring’s breeding stocks.

Thus, the beginning of any recovery of our waterfowl breeding stocks appears several years away.

To illustrate our current plight, we begin by looking at North American pothole numbers over the past decade.

Table 1. North American potholes over the past decade have ranged from a high of 7.5 million in 1996 and 1997 to a low of 2.7 in 2002. The 2004 total of 3.9 million potholes is the second lowest number reported in the past 10 years. Source: USFWS

As you can see in the above graph, only 3.9 million potholes this spring greeted northward migrating ducks, a 24 percent decline from the previous year. The low number of potholes signifies drought conditions on the northern nesting prairies.

At the same time, biologists counted fewer breeding ducks. A comparison of the 2003 and 2004 breeding-ground survey shows seven of 10 species declined this year.

NORTH AMERICAN BREEDING SURVEY RESULTS

As you can see, biologists conducting the surveys found the sharpest declines among blue-winged teal (-26%), widgeon (-22%), shovelers (-22%) and pintails (-15%). Only canvasbacks (11%), scaup (2%) and gadwalls (2%) posted population increases.

But one-year and long-term-average comparisons fail to accurately portray recent population changes. The following graph compares each species 2004 tally with its 1995-2004 peak.

Table 2. All species of ducks counted in the North American breeding- ground survey over the past decade have declined significantly from their peak population. Mallards this spring are down 31 percent from their 10-year peak; pintails, -39%; gadwall, -34%; widgeon, -36%; green-winged teal, -23%; blue-winged teal, -45%; shoveler, -32%; redhead, -40%; canvasback, -27%, and scaup, -14%. Source: USFWS

For all species combined, the breeding population declined 28 percent from its 10-year peak. This population drop, when combined with the loss of potholes, means juvenile production will be minimal. Many early-nesting species over-flew the dry prairies to seek water in Northern Canada, but the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service reported the over-flight ducks “encountered winter-like conditions and nesting may have been curtailed. This is especially true for mallards and pintails.”

The autumn’s migration is expected to be thin, especially for our most prized puddle-duck species.

At the same time, Adaptive Harvest Management’s regulatory protocol, which is calibrated to maximize the kill, called for a continuation of liberal seasons and bag limits in all four flyways. If adopted, this would mark the third time in the past five years that drought conditions have prevailed on the prairies and waterfowl management has allowed liberal hunting regulations – long seasons, high bag limits, early opening dates, later closing dates.

The Arkansas Wildlife Federation, Concerned Duck Hunters Panel of Minnesota and the California Division of Fish and Game oppose a ninth consecutive season of the most liberal regulations in half a century, especially during a drought year. The reasons for their opposition vary, but all relate to over-shooting.

Some knowledgeable observers, including Madduck.org, believe the continuation this autumn of liberal regulations will further reduce next year’s breeding stocks and delay a possible recovery.

The coming weeks will tell the story. The flyway councils must first decide whether to endorse the continuation. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Regulations Committee then will review the flyway council actions and issue its recommendation. This will then be reviewed by the director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service before proposed regulations are issued. States can then issue their own duck-hunting regulations, which can be more restrictive but not more liberal than the federal frameworks.

Keep in mind the most decisive factor this year will not be biological. This is a presidential election year. Incumbent presidents rarely take restrictive actions that might offend voters during election years. (This is not an anti-Bush statement. It is simply a fact of political life in our nation’s capital. Half a century has passed since a conservationist eloquently observed: “The two greatest threats to conservation are Democrats and Republicans.”)

The smart money is betting on another liberal season – and a further drop in numbers of breeding ducks next spring.

But the winds of change are gathering strength. In addition to the aforementioned organizations, the International Association of Fish & Wildlife Agencies has appointed an Adaptive Harvest Management Task Force to study the issues. Although its final report is months away, it issued an interim report last month that declared:

“It has become increasingly clear that maximizing the size of the waterfowl harvest is not the most important objective of harvest management.” (Italics ours.)

To which every sportsman and waterfowl conservationist should say, “Amen.”