The setting sun of late January brought to a close the most recent duck season in the Mississippi Flyway. For hunters in Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana it was a year of uneven to marginal success. With few exceptions hunters in these traditionally duck-rich states asked, “Where were the mallards?” The answer to this question is most likely found by taking a look not only at the most recent season, but also the previous five seasons. By examining the significant changes that have taken place in agriculture during this time period and analyzing weather patterns a clear picture unfolds that explains what is happening with Mississippi Flyway mallards.

Historically, mallards left the breeding grounds when the marshes froze and their food supply was covered by ice. On their way south they frequented marshes and river backwaters, staying just ahead of the freeze line before ultimately ending up in the lower Mississippi Valley for the winter. In most years this meant nearly all the mallards were south of the Mason-Dixon line by the middle of December. But as agriculture took hold of the land in a big way some 80 years ago, mallards began dry-land feeding in waste grain fields and gathered on open water on rivers, U. S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoirs and more recently the warm waters of nuclear power plant lakes. These changes enabled mallards to stay longer in the breeding and mid-latitude states. They rafted on the rivers and lakes, feeding in the corn and wheat fields until the farmer plowed under the waste grain in preparation for the next year’s planting season or snow covered the stubble.

Fall plowing was the practice of choice across the Corn Belt from the 1960s until the mid 1990s. Each year after the crop was harvested farmers took to their tractors and plowed the land black, burying the food supply in preparation for spring planting. This left mallards with only marsh foods upon which to feed and prompted them to wing southward. This changed in the mid 1990s due to soil erosion concerns, the expense of plowing, the advent of no-till equipment and “Round-up” ready crops.

Decades of fall plowing ended virtually overnight. No-till or minimum tillage farming took hold of the Corn Belt. Millions of acres that had been turned black in the months of October, November and December were now left alone or minimally disturbed. Corn, a food high in carbohydrates, remained available through fall and winter. No longer when the temperature dropped did mallards head for rice country. The migration occurred only if snow covered the fields for a period of days, or the mercury fell to the point it became so bitterly cold that waters froze over.

In years past, a southern duck hunter only had to look for freezing temperatures “up north” to know a flight was on the way. Now, it takes a combination of cold and significant snow cover to send the overwhelming portion of mallards to the rice fields and hardwood bottoms.

Then there is the weather. In recent years winter temperatures by and large have been consistent with historical averages, but the amount of snow cover on the ground has not. Many mid-latitude Mississippi Flyway states have been relatively snow free during the months of November, December and January.

In addition, other agricultural factors may be causing mallards to alter their migration. Substantial changes in farming practices have also occurred in the South. Not long ago the harvest of rice and soybeans was conducted just ahead of the fall rains. Fall fieldwork was a luxury practiced in dry years and only by a few. The low-lying fields, the places ducks like most, were seldom worked in the fall. Waste grain was abundant.

Today, a drive across Mississippi, Arkansas and north Louisiana reveals a very different story. New varieties of rice, soybeans and corn have led to earlier fall harvests and wholesale fall fieldwork. Extensive portions of prime mallard wintering haunts now have little food in the fields and the legendary tractor ruts that held rainwater and sent hunters tumbling over their waders are mostly gone. Additionally, many of the lowest lying areas that were most prone to flooding and extensive crop loss have been placed in the Wetland Reserve Program (WRP). Over 200,000 acres of trees and grass are growing where only five years ago soybeans and rice provided food for mallards. The result is that there are fewer places in the South today for a mallard to find food, water and shelter than was the case five years ago.

Moreover, in areas where hunting interests are extensive, ducks are provided with water, food and lots of duck blinds. Record numbers of hunters pursue the ducks. One need look no further than the “mallard capital” of the world, Stuttgart, Arkansas, to see the dangers that lurk nearly anywhere a duck might want to loaf and feed. A mallard’s desire to escape dawn-to-dusk pressure is limited.

Yet mallards are a very adaptable species. They will go where the opportunity for survival is best. They will adapt their feeding, watering and refuge habits to increase their chances for survival. Just as Canada Geese ended their southward migration in the mid-latitude states instead of flying all the way to the Gulf Coast, so to exists the possibility that mallards eventually will permanently alter their migration if weather, agricultural practices and hunting pressure make it more favorable to linger in the northern and mid latitude states.

What the future holds for mallards over the Grand Prairie, the Delta and the coastal marshes thus is problematical. Mother Nature and modern agriculture will decide whether the “mallard hunting” capital of the world remains in Arkansas or moves northward.