Want to know the real reason why ducks are fast disappearing?

Consider the Atlantic Flyway, where gunning regulations are determined by a special Adaptive Harvest model. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently declared that this spring “the eastern (mallard) population is expected to decline by seven percent, but the population likely still will be high enough to support the liberal alternative” for this autumn’s upcoming gunning season.

The service cited eastern breeding-ground surveys that purport to show the flyway’s mallards, and by inference other species, are holding their own in the face of heavy gunfire. Mallards are the sole species on which Adaptive Harvest determines the hunting regulations.

Figure 1. Spring breeding surveys in the northeastern United States and eastern Canada suggest Atlantic Flyway mallards are holding their own, ranging from a low of 855,800 in 1990 to a high of 1,131,500 in 1996. The 2002 survey found 1,005,400 mallards. Source: USFWS.

As you can see, mallards appear to have increased slightly over the past 13 years. This suggests ducks are plentiful along Atlantic coastal marshes, thus allowing for a continuation of the long seasons and high bag limits that have been in effect since 1997.

But if mallards are so plentiful, as the surveys suggest, why are Atlantic Flyway gunners each year releasing tens of thousands of free-flying, semi-domestic mallards to insure there are ducks to shoot? Why are so many Atlantic Flyway hunters complaining about few ducks of other species?

What is missing from the service’s analysis?

A look at winter surveys reveals an entirely different picture.

Figure 2. Surveys along the Atlantic Flyway wintering grounds suggest a steady decline in numbers of mallards since 1990. The peak population of 200,256, recorded during the winter of 1990-91, fell to 133,237 in 2002-03 – the lowest winter count ever recorded. This is a decline of 33 percent. Source: USFWS.

One might ask how the service could continue liberal regulations in the wake of a significant decline reported in winter surveys. The answer is that it ignores the winter surveys.

But to limit criticism of Adaptive Harvest in the Atlantic Flyway to the years since 1990 would amount to intellectual negligence. Winter surveys go back to the mid-50s and a long-term look raises alarming questions.

Figure 3. Winter surveys reveal Atlantic Flyway mallards have declined from a peak of 370,515 during the winter of 1955-56 to a low of 133,237 in 2002-03 – a 64 percent drop. Source: USFWS.

A 64 percent decline might suggest to a rational person a more moderate hunting season to reduce the annual kill, especially in the absence of a scientific study showing that higher kills increase breeding populations. But it is not only the steady decline over the years that must be considered. Last winter’s mallard count also was the lowest ever recorded since the surveys were initiated in the 1950s.

The shunning of these alarming findings might suggest other factors are at work. For example, we know that mallards are not highly esteemed in parts of the Atlantic Flyway. In New England the black duck has reigned supreme for decades. Mallards are blamed for displacing blacks from traditional haunts. Drake mallards also are accused of seducing black duck hens and diluting the black duck’s genetic integrity. Is there a sociological bias that causes the service to discount the winter-survey mallard data? Can we assume that even if mallards have declined significantly, other, more favorable species are holding their own and this provides justification for long seasons and high bag limits? One look at winter survey data should dispel this idea.

WINTER DUCK COUNTS

As you can see, the flyway’s most prized ducks also have declined significantly. The combined total for all dabbling-duck species shows a 71 percent decline since the mid ‘50s. In South Carolina, mallards declined from an average of 83,765 during the 1970s to 2,714 this past winter -- a 97 percent drop. Importantly, these radical declines have occurred during the lifetime of many waterfowlers still going afield, including this writer.

Why does the service ignore this data? Ostensibly, it is dismissed on a minor technical point – the failure to fly predetermined strata during the counts. This ignores the fact that the early numbers reflect old-time waterfowlers’ experiences.

More importantly, the Atlantic Flyway Adaptive Harvest plan fails to set a mallard population goal, unlike its mid-continent counterpart that calls for the service to maintain an 8.1 million mallard breeding population. The mid-continent is goal is simply the average mallard breeding population during the 1970s.

We can calculate the average 1970s Atlantic Flyway winter populations for four species and compare them to current winter census tallies to see whether the Atlantic Flyway meets this modest mid-continent objective.

WINTER POPULATIONS

As you can see, mallards remain 32 percent below the 1970s average. Other species also are significantly below their ‘70s average.

The failure to establish a population goal renders the Atlantic Flyway Adaptive Harvest Management plan meaningless. It is a sham. The lack of a population goal means there is no built-in pressure to force waterfowl management to meet a predetermined objective and halt the decline of the flyway’s most important species. It allows authorities to escape responsibility for making hard decisions and truly manage our flocks.

This deliberate omission is attributable to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the state-dominated Atlantic Flyway Council and Adaptive Harvest proponents. It allows the service to cite Adaptive Harvest as justification for another liberal season even though the flyway’s wintering flocks are crashing. This dubious arrangement ignores the historical record that tells us the flyway cannot continue “liberal” regulations and at the same time expect its flocks to increase.

Thus, hunters who blame predation, short-stopping, potholes, edge-cover, refuge hoarding or whatever are barking up the wrong tree. The real reason for declining populations is that management does not want to increase our breeding flocks. It does not want to manage. This is the root cause of today’s duck shortage.

A final note. The Atlantic Flyway Adaptive Harvest plan is not a completely blank slate. It spells out one – and only one – goal. It is to “maximize the long-term cumulative harvest.”

Do you need to know more to understand why the Atlantic Flyway’s duck populations have crashed?